Will Allen
The Conservative party, the UK's, and arguably the worlds, most storied political party is drawing its protected leadership contest to a close later today. For the first time in nearly two decades, the party is selecting someone to become Leader of the Opposition, rather than Prime Minister. This job is arguably one of the toughest in UK politics, if not the toughest - where there are no right answers or easy decisions. So will the party understand the gravity of its choice?
The Conservative Party has long been called the natural party of government. Not only is the party supposedly primed for government, it is an election wining machine, unlike any other. The party is undoubtedly the most successful political party still in existence today. Yet, the most recent general election saw the party do something it hadn’t done for over a decade: lose. At the election on the 4th July, the party was cast out into the wilderness of opposition for the first time in 14 years, reduced to just over 100 MPs. Now, in this lonely wilderness, it has some hard truths to face up to.
Opposition is a harsh place for any party, Labour came to understand this acutely, losing and losing, and then losing again. It is a place where parties can spend hours, days, months even, talking about an issue for no one to listen to them. As a party in opposition, people will rarely have time for you, its often like talking to a wall. To be taken seriously in the wilderness of opposition, parties need to be led back into power by serious leaders who can navigate the incredibly narrow tightrope parties must walk.
This feat, to return to power, requires a seriousness and deftness few political leaders possess today. It is a seriousness today’s Conservative party does not grasp, a look to the slate of leadership candidates it put up recently makes this abundantly clear. They talked about being less weird… while being weird. They talked endlessly of renewal before the next election; about shouting louder about leaving the ECHR; about cutting regulations that protect and enhance peoples work lives. These are not serious conversations, and the party is deluding itself that they are. It has failed to grasp that it lost on every front, while it remains steadfastly convinced shouting a bit louder about immigration, or the economy, will fix things by the next election.
Unlike before there is no quick get out of jail card, the party has squandered its once indisputable strengths. When it was in office, time and time again, the party failed to be a party of serious government. It elevated unserious leader after unserious leader. Leaders who chose referendums to end internal party divisions (only to make them worse). Leaders who couldn’t control their party when the country needed that stability the most. Leaders who told people to follow the rules while they habitually broke them. Leaders who were so inept they gambled away economic stability, and left office after only 49 days. Now the party has elevated someone cut from exactly the same cloth, who served under and enabled the party’s former leaders.
In the wilderness of opposition, the party, and its new leader, is going to face the reality that after 14 years in government there is almost nothing to sell the party’s return to power on. To talk of the party’s experience in government is to talk about failure. The party can no longer talk of economic stability and stewardship without invoking Liz Truss and the damage she inflicted. Her unseriousness for governing has untethered the party from the position of strength it once held. Any talk of immigration is met with the failed delivery of gimmicks that were never meant to work. Whatever trade deals were struck weren’t worth the paper they were written on.
Yet, there is a more foundational problem for the Conservative party. After 14 long, tired, years in government, the cardinal sin it will be remembered for was breaking things the British public love, the NHS, local communities, high streets, and far greater projects like the justice system and even the shared unity of the union. After a decade of austerity and tumultuous leadership, the fabric of Britain is broken itself. What’s more, these institutions that voters take so much pride in were broken not just on its watch, but at the hands of the Conservative party.
If you are the victim of a crime, you won’t get justice (or likely even report the crime) because the Conservative party broke the justice system. If you need NHS care, you will have to get in the queue of over 6 million people waiting for NHS treatment. If you are a first-time house buyer, too bad, the Conservatives didn’t build nearly enough houses. These are unforgivable acts of an unserious political project, that was for too long too concerned with maintaining power. These are fundamental issues the party must atone for, which it must apologise to voters for, and which can’t be made good by shouting a bit louder about 20mph traffic zones and who gets to use what public bathroom.
Worse still, the new Conservative leader appears unready to face up to these facts. The party detached itself from the electorate long before the last election, and only appears to be wandering further away from it. Party conference seems to have instilled a belief in the party that all it needs is a new leader and it will to storm to power, that a triumphant return to power is assured – it is not. The dangerous pound-shop populism the party courts won’t make it any more appealing in opposition than it did in government.
The party also appears, strangely, to be convinced Labour won’t grow into government. Labour now shackled to the weight and responsibility of governing, at a time where there are no easy decisions, appears at this moment inept. Entangled in a mess of its own making with gifts, and unable to say anything until the budget, it has struggled to set the narrative. This rough start appears to have given many Conservatives a false sense of security, believing that Labour can never grow into its newfound power. When, not if, Labour learns to wield the power of government properly, the Conservative party, indulging the right and enthralled to cheap gimmicks, will face a challenge it cannot meet.
This latest iteration of deeply unserious leadership proves the Conservative party has much to learn about its many mistakes, and what awaits it out in the wilderness of opposition. The party remains unwilling to begin atoning for 14 years of damage it inflicted on Britain. Reduced to 121 MPs, and the loneliness of opposition, the party is more insignificant than ever – no longer the natural party of government. It has no plan but to shout louder into a corner about things it thinks are important, but this time with a new leader. While its unseriousness was just about tolerated in power, the party will find there is no room for it in opposition.
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